№ 3/2020

№ 3/2020

Nauk. pr. NDFI 2020 (3): 128–143https://doi.org/10.33763/npndfi2020.03.000

FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC REGULATION

KORNIEIEVA Iuliia ¹

¹SESE "The Academy of Financial Management"
OrcID ID : https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1823-7618

Evaluating the system of factors influencing the investment decision under postindustrial transformations

The article analyzes the prerequisites for systematic use of Big Data sources by government agencies as a tool for forecasting systemic financial risks during investment decision processes at the state level as well as for the formation of public investment policy. The author made a comprehensive assessment of the system of factors that influence the investment decision-making process in terms of post-industrial transformations. The author proposes to solve the problem of forming investment activity information risks based on empowerment of big data analytics. The proposed model assesses the institutional framework by analyzing a wide range of factors such as the level of shadow economy, corruption and economic freedom, including government integrity, property rights, investment freedom, that influence the process of investment decision. Based on indices analysis expands the limited capabilities of risk assessment models of financial instruments based on market data, that reflect the components of expectations, covering the behavioral factor - speculative behavior. Cluster assessment of investment inflows to Ukraine was conducted based on econometric modeling using VAR analysis revealed no significant impact of indicators that reflect the presence of institutional barriers for investors concerning FDI from offshore countries (Cyprus, British Virgin Islands), the impact was limited to an average of 5%. Along with economic factors, the determinants of FDI inflows from developed countries (Germany, Great Britain, United States of America, Austria, the Netherlands) were institutional ones influencing the formation of compliance risks, the impact of which ranged within 30%.

Keywords:direct investment, investment decision, compliance risks, transitive economy, econometric modelling

JEL: C13, C67, D57, E23

Kornieieva I. . Evaluating the system of factors influencing the investment decision under postindustrial transformations / I. Kornieieva // Наукові праці НДФІ. - 2020. - № 3. - C. 128-143.

1. Boliubash, Iu. Ia. (2017). Methods and means of processing Big Data information resources in territorial management systems. (PhD Thesis). Lviv [in Ukrainian].
2. Kennedy, R., Lazer, D., King, G.,& Vespignani, A. (2014). The Parable of Google Flu: Traps in Big Data Analysis. Science, 343 (14), 1203–1205. doi.org/10.1126/science.1248506
3. Cerchiello, P., Giudici, P., & Nicola, G. (2016). Big data models of bank risk contagion. DEM Working Paper Series, 117, 2–16.
4. Nyman, R., Gregory, D., Kapadia, S., Ormerod, P., Tuckett, D., & Smith R. (2016). News and narratives in financial systems: Exploiting big data for systemic risk assessment. Retrieved from www.norges- www.norges-bank.no/contentassets/49b4dce839a7410b9a7f66578da8cf74/papers/smith.pdf.
5. Nymand-Andersen, P. (2016). Big data: The hunt for timely insights and decision certainty. Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics Working Papers, 14. Retrieved from www.bis.org/ifc/publ/ifcwork14.pdf.
6. Board of the National Bank of Ukraine. (2018). On approval of the Regulations on the organization of the risk management system in banks of Ukraine and banking groups (Resolution No. 64, June 11). Retrieved from zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/v0064500-18/ed20180611#n35 [in Ukrainian].
7. Transparency International. (n. d.). Corruption Perceptions Index. Retrieved from www.transparency.org/.
8. World Bank. (n. d.). Ukraine. Doing Business. Retrieved from www.doingbusiness.org/en/data/exploreeconomies/ukraine.
9. World Economic Forum. (2018). Ukraine. Global Competitiveness Index 4.02018 edition. Retrieved from reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2018/country-economy-profiles/#economy=UKR/.
10. Schwab, K. (Ed.). (2019). The Global Competitiveness Report 2019. World Economic Forum. 666 p. Retrieved from www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2019.pdf.
11. Heritage Foundation. (n. d.). Economic Freedom Index. Retrieved from www.heritage.org/index/explore?view=by-region-country-year&u=637012211969077271.
12. Heritage Foundation. (n. d.). Country Rankings. Retrieved fromwww.heritage.org/index/ranking.
13. Heritage Foundation. (n. d.). The Index of Economic Freedom (Methodology). Retrieved from www.heritage.org/index/pdf/2019/book/methodology.pdf.
14. World Bank Data. (n. d.). Ukraine. Retrieved from data.worldbank.org/country/ukraine?view=chart.
15. Global Economy Database. (n. d.). Shadow economy in Europe. Retrieved from www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/shadow_economy/Europe/#Ukraine.
16. Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine. (2020). Trends in the shadow economy in Ukraine. Retrieved from www.me.gov.ua/Documents/List?lang=uk-UA&id=e384c5a7-6533-4ab6-b56f-50e5243eb15a [in Ukrainian].
17. UNCTSADstat. (2020). Foreign direct investment: Inward and outward flows and stock, annual. Retrieved from unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=96740.
18. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (n. d.). Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].