№ 1/2018

№ 1/2018

Nauk. pr. NDFI 2018 (1): 59–72https://doi.org/10.33763/npndfi2018.01.059

ECONOMIC SECURITY

UKHNAL Nataliia ¹

¹SESE "Academy of Financial Management"
OrcID ID : https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8562-9355

Budgetary security of the country in conditions of exacerbate fiscal risks

The article deals with the key economic aspects of Ukraine’s budgetary security within the context of the new economic growth model. The strategy for sustainable development of Ukraine at the present stage is based on the basic principles of ensuring the national and state interests in the long-term perspective. The purpose of the article is to assess the level of fiscal security in the country and justify the ways of minimizing risks and threats to the financial system of Ukraine. This paper focuses on fiscal risks emerging from public enterprises with low efficiency, in particular, the reduction of revenues due to the decrease of its tax and dividend transfers, potential threats to state-guaranteed debt due to the chronic underfunding of public enterprises, which could lead to increased needs for direct budget financing. The key recommendation is that the government should regularly prepare and publish a statement of fiscal risks, including information about the different types of risks related to already announced public interventions. The methodology for assessing fiscal risks and fiscal sustainability indicators in the European Union are revealed and the feasibility of using individual indicators is substantiated. This allows a comprehensive and multidimensional assessment of risks to fiscal sustainability, which is needed to consider possible appropriate policy responses. Also, the author analyzes the key indicators of Ukraine’s budgetary security for the period 2014-2016, defines the factors that lead to the negative impact on the state financial security, and suggests the ways to improve the financial security. In conclusion, the author stresses the need for further efforts to guide budgetary policy more effectively to avoid future fiscal risks.

Keywords:public finance management, financial security, budgetary security, budgetary risks, fiscal risks, fiscal vulnerability, fiscal sustainability

JEL: E60, H61

Ukhnal N. . Budgetary security of the country in conditions of exacerbate fiscal risks / N. Ukhnal // Наукові праці НДФІ. - 2018. - № 1. - C. 59-72.

Article original in Ukrainian (pp. 59 - 72)

Download

Downloads :907

1. Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. (2017). The Strategy for reforming the public finance management system for 2017-2020 (Order No. 142-p, February 8). Retrieved from www.kmu.gov.ua/control/uk/cardnpd?docid=249797370 [in Ukrainian].

2. Blankart, S. (2000). Public finances in a democracy: an introduction to financial science. Ky'yiv: Ly'bid' [in Ukrainian].

3. Buchanan, J. M. (1987). Public Finance in Democratic Process: Fiscal Institutions and the Individual Choice. UNC Press Books.

4. Stiglitz, J. (1998). Economics of the Public Sector. Ky'yiv: Osnovy' [in Ukrainian].

5. Fischer, S., Easterly, W. (1990). The economics of the government budget constraint. The World Bank Research Observer, Vol. 5, No. 2, 127-142.
doi.org/10.1093/wbro/5.2.127

6. Fischer, S., Gelb, A. (1991). The process of socialist economic transformation. Journal of Economic perspectives, Vol. 5, No. 4, 91-105.
doi.org/10.1257/jep.5.4.91

7. Baranovskyj, O. I. (2004). Financial security in Ukraine (Evaluation methodology and mechanisms of provision). Ky'yiv: Ky'yivs'ky'j nacional'ny'j torhovel'no-ekonomichny'j universy'tet [in Ukrainian].

8. Shlemko, V. T., Bin'ko, I. F. (1997). Economic security of Ukraine: the essence and directions of the insuring. Ky'yiv: NISD [in Ukrainian].

9. Varnalij, Z. S. (Ed.). (2009). Economic security. Ky'yiv: Znannya [in Ukrainian].

10. Vlasyuk, O. S. (2014). Actual problems of financial security of Ukraine in the conditions of post-crisis transformation. Ky'yiv: NISD [in Ukrainian].

11. Heyec', V. M., Chernyak, O. I. (2006). Modeling economic security: state, region and enterprise. Kharkiv: Inzhek [in Ukrainian].

12. Yermoshenko, M. M. (2001). Financial security of the state: national interests, real threats, strategy of insuring. Ky'yiv: KNTEU [in Ukrainian].

13. Iefymenko, T. I. (2008). Budget policy of Ukraine in the system of competitiveness instruments of the state. Demography and Social Economy, 2, 42-51 [in Ukrainian].

14. Iefymenko, T. I. (2018). Monetary tools of the state economic security. Finance of Ukraine, 1, 7-30 [in Ukrainian].
doi.org/10.33763/finukr2018.01.007

15. Shlapak, O. V., Iefymenko, T. I. (Eds.). (2014). Modernization of the financial system of Ukraine in the process of eurointegration (Vols. 1-2). Kyiv: DNNU "Akademiya finansovoho upravlinnya" [in Ukrainian].

16. Sukhorukov, A. I. (2005). The current problems of the financial security of Ukraine. Ky'yiv: Rada nacional'noyi bezpeky' i oborony' Ukrayiny', Nacional'ny'j insty'tut problem mizhnarodnoyi bezpeky' [in Ukrainian].

17. Gasanov, S. S., Kudryashov, V. P. (2015). The budget deficit restrictions in conditions of fiscal risks. RFI scientific papers, 3, 5-14 [in Ukrainian].

18. State Treasury Service of Ukraine. (n. d.). Budget execution. Retrieved from www.treasury.gov.ua/main/ uk/doccatalog/list?currDir=146477 [in Ukrainian].

19. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. (n. d.). Retrieved from www.minfin.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].

20. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (n. d.). Retrieved from ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].

21. Gasanov, S. S. (2017). Fiscal risks and fiscal targeting in the system of public finance management under institutional uncertainty. RFI scientific papers, 2, 5-24 [in Ukrainian].

22. Hemming, R. (2000). A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability. IMF Working Paper, WP/00/52. Retrieved from www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000/wp0052.pdf.
doi.org/10.5089/9781451847246.001

23. European Commission. (2012). Fiscal Sustainability Report. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2012/pdf/ee-2012-8_en.pdf.

24. European Commission. (n. d.). Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/economic_governance/macroeconomic_imbalance_procedure/index_en.htm.

25. European Commission. (2009). Sustainability Report. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/pages/ publication15998_en.pdf.

26. European Commission. (2015). Fiscal Sustainability Report. Retrieved from ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/public-finances-2016-550px_0.png.

27. Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine. (2013). Methodical recommendations for calculating the level of economic security of Ukraine (Order No. 1277, October 29). Retrieved from www.me.gov.ua/Documents/List?lang=uk-UA&tag=MetodichniRekomendatsii [in Ukrainian].

28. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (2017, March 21). Gross domestic product in the I-IV quarters of 2016 and in 2017. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ [in Ukrainian].

29. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (n. d.). Operations in the general government sector. Retrieved from www.ukrstat.gov.ua/imf/arhiv/oszdu_u.htm [in Ukrainian].

30. Center for Economic Strategy. (2017). The fiscal results of 2016: express analysis. Retrieved from ces.org.ua/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/2016_budget_results_note.pdf [in Ukrainian].

31. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. (2016, January 11). Presentation of the Law of Ukraine "On the State Budget of Ukraine for 2016". Retrieved from www.minfin.gov.ua/uploads/0/1201-14%20slides_budget_2016.pdf [in Ukrainian].

32. World Bank. (2016). Ukraine: Economic Stabilization Signs Emerging, But Delay in Reforms Will Undermine Recovery and Adversely Affect the Population: press release. Retrieved from www.worldbank.org/uk/news/press-release/2016/04/01/ukraine-economic-update-spring-2016.

33. Koren', N. V. (n. d.). Budgetary security of Ukraine in the coordinates of hybrid threats to the financial system. Ky'yiv: NISD. Retrieved from www.niss.gov.ua/articles/2593/ [in Ukrainian].