№ 3/2017

№ 3/2017

Nauk. pr. NDFI 2017 (3): 21–35https://doi.org/10.33763/npndfi2017.03.021

FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC REGULATION

YASTREMSKYI Olexandr ¹

¹SESE “The Academy of Financial Management”
OrcID ID : https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9900-3612

Uncertainty in input-output scheme: comparative inter-country analysis

An analysis of dynamics of inter-industry flows in the “input-output” schemes shows considerable volatility of the matrix of direct requirements, which gives grounds for assuming their random character. This leads to a change in the nature of the variables and provides a new vision of the input-output model. So, the balances of the industries (products) require that the vector of gross output is also random (ex post). The problem arises how the initial impulse of uncertainties, including the matrix of direct requirements, is spread in the industries. A standard basket of tools of the input-output scheme is complemented by new indicators, including the “chessboard” of uncertainty of inter-industrial flows, measures of uncertainty of gross output, total requirements. To assess the level of uncertainty, a "physical" approach is used, namely: the uncertainty of a parameter is estimated by its standard deviations. To normalize the level of uncertainty, relative uncertainty is used – the ratio of the standard deviation to the expected value. The paper presents results of the Monte Carlo statistical method of testing the influence of uncertainty on inter-industry flows of national economies of Poland, USA, and Ukraine. Experiments with other things being equal for the indicated countries show that the Ukrainian economy is more vulnerable to external and internal disturbances due to its greater material intensity.

Keywords:“input-output” scheme, uncertainty, matrix of direct requirements by industry, the Monte Carlo test method

JEL: D57, D81

Yastremskyi O. . Uncertainty in input-output scheme: comparative inter-country analysis / O. Yastremskyi // Наукові праці НДФІ. - 2017. - № 3. - C. 21-35.

Article original in Ukrainian (pp. 21 - 35)

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