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Nauk. pr. NDFI 2021 (2): 25–43https://doi.org/10.33763/npndfi2021.02.025

ECONOMIC SECURITY

KULYK Volodymyr ¹

¹SESE “The Academy of Financial Management”
OrcID ID : https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2226-2795

Gross domestic product and critical infrastructure

GDP is considered as a critical infrastructure that characterizes the global interaction of consumers and manufacturers of the final product in the national economy. For the analysis and modelling of GDP, the Leontiev model is used to analyze and to model GDP as a critical infrastructure, where costs are interpreted in two ways - as consumer spending and as producer costs. This allows you to determine the degree of their influence on each other through the established production structure. Based on Leontiev's aggregated three-sector model, two scenarios were modelled: a) the impact of final consumer spending on output and the formation of added value and b) the impact of changes in added value on output and final consumer spending. The model includes three sectors – the agricultural sector, industry and service sectors. In the first scenario, the increase in the final consumed product in the agricultural sector by 1000 yen causes an increase in output in the agricultural sector by 1153.5 yen, in industry by 594.4 yen and in the service sector by 358.1 yen. At the same time, total production costs will increase by 1106.0 yen; added value will increase in the agricultural sector by 549.8 yen, in industry – 216.8 yen, in the service sector – 233.4 yen. The volume of production growth can be determined only through the Leontiev model. In the second scenario, an increase in added value in the agricultural sector by 1000 yen brings about an increase in output in the agricultural sector by 1153.5 yen, in industry by 1470.4 yen and in the service sector by 480.7 yen. For both scenarios, the assessment and verification of calculations of GDP growth and output are carried out by the balance method – output and GDP growth is described within the Leontiev model. The three-sectoral model is useful for educational purposes, scientific research; to reach the method in a specific example. The approach can be extended to models of greater dimension and large size.

Keywords:gross domestic product, Leontiev model, input-output table, economy’s sectors, production, production infrastructure, critical infrastructure, balance methods of estimation

JEL: C13, C67, D57, E23

Kulyk V. . Gross domestic product and critical infrastructure / V. Kulyk // Наукові праці НДФІ. - 2021. - № 2. - C. 25-43.

Article original in Ukrainian (pp. 25 - 43)

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